Though Milan have had the edge over Atalanta in recent years, both teams are hampered by absences at the moment and may ultimately settle for a point. The hosts have been struggling to keep their back door shut, while the Rossoneri remain some way short of their best.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 46.69%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
1.62) 
-0.11) 
