Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 53.28%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.