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Europa Conference League | Playoffs | 1st Leg
Aug 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Tynecastle Park
P

Hearts
1 - 2
PAOK

Shankland (9' pen.)
Shankland (51'), Devlin (82')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Schwab (12' pen.), Zivkovic (75')
Tsiggaras (51'), Troost-Ekong (82'), Soares (90+5'), Murg (90+9')

We said: Hearts 2-1 PAOK

Both teams enter Thursday's contest in good form and will fancy their chances of coming out on top over the course of the two-legged tie. However, we believe that Hearts will grind out a slender first-leg advantage on home soil. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for Hearts had a probability of 30.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Hearts win was 2-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for PAOK in this match.

Result
HeartsDrawPAOK
30.61%24.32%45.06%
Both teams to score 58.31%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.84%44.16%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.46%66.54%
Hearts Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.65%27.35%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.19%62.81%
PAOK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.26%19.74%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.23%51.77%
Score Analysis
    Hearts 30.61%
    PAOK 45.06%
    Draw 24.32%
HeartsDrawPAOK
2-1 @ 7.36%
1-0 @ 7%
2-0 @ 4.54%
3-1 @ 3.18%
3-2 @ 2.58%
3-0 @ 1.96%
4-1 @ 1.03%
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 30.61%
1-1 @ 11.35%
2-2 @ 5.97%
0-0 @ 5.4%
3-3 @ 1.4%
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.32%
1-2 @ 9.21%
0-1 @ 8.76%
0-2 @ 7.11%
1-3 @ 4.98%
0-3 @ 3.84%
2-3 @ 3.23%
1-4 @ 2.02%
0-4 @ 1.56%
2-4 @ 1.31%
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 45.06%

Read more!
Read more!


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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