Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.99%) and 0-2 (5.08%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
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