SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 27.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Manchester City in this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
49.48% ( 0.58) | 23.13% ( -0.4) | 27.38% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 60.21% ( 1.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.34% ( 1.7) | 40.66% ( -1.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.95% ( 1.73) | 63.04% ( -1.73) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.37% ( 0.86) | 16.63% ( -0.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.54% ( 1.52) | 46.45% ( -1.52) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.21% ( 0.75) | 27.78% ( -0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.63% ( 0.95) | 63.36% ( -0.95) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Manchester United |
| 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.41)2-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 5.7% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 2% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.35% Total : 49.49% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.37)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.13% | 1-2 @ 6.8% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.92% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.6% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.82% Total : 27.38% |
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