SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 35.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Arsenal |
35.42% ( 1.31) | 25.06% ( -0.46) | 39.51% ( -0.84) |
| Both teams to score 57.38% ( 1.86) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.92% ( 2.29) | 46.08% ( -2.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.62% ( 2.13) | 68.38% ( -2.13) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% ( 1.86) | 25.34% ( -1.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.87% ( 2.48) | 60.13% ( -2.48) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.86% ( 0.59) | 23.14% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.99% ( 0.85) | 57.01% ( -0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 8.05% ( -0.35)2-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 3.7% ( 0.29)3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0.25)3-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.62% Total : 35.42% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.26)0-0 @ 5.86% ( -0.59)3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.06% | 1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.7)0-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.4)1-3 @ 4.21% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.17)1-4 @ 1.54% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.51% |
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