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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 87.28%. A draw had a probability of 8.5% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 4.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 4-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.81%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (1.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
87.28% ( 0.13) | 8.48% ( -0.06) | 4.24% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 49.82% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.78% ( -0.09) | 21.22% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 60.19% ( -0.13) | 39.81% ( 0.14) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.87% ( 0) | 3.13% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 86.02% ( 0.01) | 13.98% ( -0) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.43% ( -0.37) | 48.57% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.35% ( -0.27) | 83.65% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 3-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 3.65% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 2.63% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.03)7-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.02)7-1 @ 1.3% ( -0)6-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.46% Total : 87.28% | 1-1 @ 3.81% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.78% Total : 8.48% | 1-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 1.1% ( -0)Other @ 1.76% Total : 4.24% |
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