Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 30.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
