With five games left in the league season, Benfica have to put their European disappointment behind them and need a positive result here to keep their league hopes alive. While Farense have proven difficult to beat on their home patch this season, we feel the Eagles will be able to grind out a result in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 65.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 14.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.07%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a SC Farense win it was 1-0 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.19) 
