Both sides have looked very poor in recent weeks, but we expect Ajaccio to do just enough to secure all three points, in what is a real relegation six-pointer.
The hosts were by far the better team in the meeting earlier this season, and while they have struggled of late, they have managed to perform against teams around them, defeating Angers 2-1 at the beginning of February.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 52.3%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 22.28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajaccio would win this match.
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