SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Lens | 7 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Lyon | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Lille | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 21 | 19 |
| 2 | Marseille | 7 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Lorient | 8 | 5 | 19 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 56.5%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 22.93% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.22%) and 1-3 (6.81%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (5.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lyon | Draw | Paris Saint-Germain |
22.93% ( 0.09) | 20.56% ( 0.03) | 56.5% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 64.67% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.32% ( -0.02) | 32.68% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.64% ( -0.02) | 54.36% ( 0.02) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.18% ( 0.06) | 26.81% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.89% ( 0.08) | 62.1% ( -0.08) |
| Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.37% ( -0.04) | 11.63% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.35% ( -0.08) | 36.65% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lyon | Draw | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.9% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.93% Total : 22.93% | 1-1 @ 8.83% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.12% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.97% ( 0)Other @ 0.39% Total : 20.56% | 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.22% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 6.81% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 6.71% ( -0)0-3 @ 5.18% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 4.49% 1-4 @ 3.67% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.79% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 2.41% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 1.06% 2-5 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 56.5% |
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