Marseille have the joint-best defensive unit in Ligue 1, conceding just five goals, which is as many as Ajaccio have scored this season, so we do not anticipate the home team will be threatened much in this outing.
In the attack, Les Olympiens have many quality forwards who can do some damage - their last eight goals scored in all competitions have come from different individuals - and AJA do not have anywhere near that kind of scoring depth on their roster.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 62.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 15.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.61%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
0.54) 
-0.2) 
