SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 52.63%. A win for Lille had a probability of 24.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.75%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lille |
52.63% ( 0.45) | 23.34% ( -0.05) | 24.03% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 56.12% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.46% ( -0.16) | 44.54% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.09% ( -0.16) | 66.9% ( 0.15) |
| Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.08% ( 0.1) | 16.91% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.02% ( 0.18) | 46.97% ( -0.19) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.55% ( -0.42) | 32.45% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.03% ( -0.48) | 68.97% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lille |
| 2-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 5.78% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.09% Total : 52.63% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.33% | 1-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.52% Total : 24.03% |
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