Rennes have not recorded a draw in their last 37 Ligue 1 home games, while posting an impressive 29 wins in that period; in fact, their last home draw came on the opening matchday in 2021. That run should continue, as the hosts have far too much firepower for their promoted opponents to withstand - though they may concede a goal en route to victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 48.85%. A win for Metz had a probability of 26.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.
-0.6) 
0.28) 
