Montpellier games have tended to be high-scoring affairs this season, so we expect them to carry on in this vein, but Toulouse should have enough about them to get a point at home.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 63.61%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
0.34) 
-0.38) 
