Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Pau had a probability of 30.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
-0.38) 
0.08) 
