Montreal's form at home may be a little deceiving, as all of their victories this year at Saputo Stadium have come against lower-tiered teams or MLS sides currently outside of the playoff picture, as they have beaten up on teams with poor defensive records.
The Boys in Gold, meanwhile, have been nearly impossible to get through most of the year, while their star player has looked unstoppable in recent matches, which is why we are tipping Nashville to extend their unbeaten run to 11 games.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 48.86%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Nashville SC had a probability of 23.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Nashville SC win it was 0-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for CF Montreal in this match.
-0.04) 
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