SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 32 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 9 | 30 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 18 | 1 | 29 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Toronto | 18 | -10 | 18 |
| 8 | DC United | 16 | -8 | 17 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire | 18 | -8 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 60.75%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for DC United had a probability of 16.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | DC United |
60.75% ( 3.08) | 22.62% ( -1.3) | 16.62% ( -1.78) |
| Both teams to score 46.86% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.91% ( 2.39) | 51.08% ( -2.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.06% ( 2.06) | 72.94% ( -2.06) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.6% ( 1.95) | 16.39% ( -1.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.95% ( 3.42) | 46.04% ( -3.42) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.05% ( -0.78) | 43.95% ( 0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.92% ( -0.65) | 80.08% ( 0.65) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | DC United |
| 1-0 @ 13.02% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.39)2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.66)3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.43)4-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.48)4-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.35)3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.13)5-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.24)4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.18)Other @ 1.88% Total : 60.73% | 1-1 @ 10.71% ( -0.57) 0-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.72)2-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.72% Total : 22.62% | 0-1 @ 5.92% ( -0.73) 1-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.36)1-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.56% Total : 16.62% |
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