The Toros have not won an away match against the Red Bulls since 2006 (2-1), and with so many key contributors not at 100%, we expect a strong defensive unit like New York to frustrate them and be able to create chances on the counter.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 49.19%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Dallas had a probability of 24.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Dallas win it was 0-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
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