SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Louis City | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
39.57% ( -0.55) | 24.78% ( -0.11) | 35.65% ( 0.67) |
| Both teams to score 58.45% ( 0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.28% ( 0.63) | 44.72% ( -0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.92% ( 0.61) | 67.08% ( -0.6) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.49% ( 0) | 22.51% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.93% ( 0) | 56.08% ( -0) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.43% ( 0.67) | 24.57% ( -0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.94% ( 0.94) | 59.06% ( -0.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Louis City | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
| 2-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.23)2-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 39.57% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 5.53% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.77% | 1-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 7.76% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.07)2-4 @ 1% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.8% Total : 35.65% |
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