Consistency has been a significant issue for both teams throughout the campaign, with Orlando struggling to create a lot of chances while the Reds seem to be frequently collecting the ball out of their own goal.
The Lions have not lost consecutive regular-season encounters since September of last year, although Toronto have not been blanked at home in 2022, making a draw a reasonable assumption.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 48.67%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 26.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
