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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ebbsfleet win with a probability of 51.39%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 25.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ebbsfleet win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ebbsfleet would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Oxford City |
51.39% ( 0.24) | 23.08% ( -0.07) | 25.53% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 58.65% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.06% ( 0.15) | 41.94% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.66% ( 0.15) | 64.34% ( -0.15) |
| Ebbsfleet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.59% ( 0.14) | 16.41% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.94% ( 0.26) | 46.07% ( -0.25) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.17% ( -0.06) | 29.83% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.08% ( -0.07) | 65.92% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ebbsfleet | Draw | Oxford City |
| 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.85% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.36% Total : 51.39% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.08% | 1-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.92% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.36% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.15% Total : 25.53% |
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