Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-23s win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Stoke City Under-23s had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.12%) and 2-0 (5.14%). The likeliest Stoke City Under-23s win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
