SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 46.29%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.15%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Stoke City Under-21s |
30.76% ( -0.01) | 22.94% ( -0.12) | 46.29% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 63.37% ( 0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.47% ( 0.55) | 37.53% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.24% ( 0.59) | 59.76% ( -0.6) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.01% ( 0.27) | 23.98% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.77% ( 0.38) | 58.23% ( -0.39) |
| Stoke City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.37% ( 0.25) | 16.63% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.54% ( 0.46) | 46.45% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Stoke City Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 7.29% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.47% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.76% | 1-1 @ 10.21% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.54% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.99% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.93% | 1-2 @ 9.16% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 5.48% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.91% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 3.84% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.46% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.39% Total : 46.29% |
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