Casa Pia have enjoyed a fine start to their top-flight campaign and this has been owing to the solid job done at the defensive end of the pitch. Arouca, meanwhile, will be looking to regroup and get their season back on track following their disappointing loss against Braga. We predict a cagey affair at the National Sports Center of Jamor, with both sides settling for a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
1.62) 
-1.99) 
