Chaves and Rio Ave picked up one win apiece in their two meetings in the Segunda Liga last term, so we can expect another close contest on Monday. Both sides head into the game off the back of impressive wins and we predict that they will cancel each other out and settle for a point.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 29.25% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
1.34) 
-1.35) 
