While Vizela find themselves in the bottom half of the table after an underwhelming first half of the season, they have been solid away from home in recent weeks and we fancy them coming away with all three points against the hosts who have struggled for consistency.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
-0.39) 
0.63) 
