Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Umm Salal win with a probability of 43.32%. A win for Al Ahli had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Umm Salal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Al Ahli win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Umm Salal would win this match.

Result
Umm Salal	Draw	Al Ahli
43.32% ( 0.2)	24.55% ( -0.02)	32.12% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 58.23% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.42% (

0.04)

44.57% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.06% (

0.04)

66.94% (

-0.03)

Umm Salal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.32% (

0.11)

20.67% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.73% (

0.17)

53.26% (

-0.17)

Al Ahli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.41% (

-0.09)

26.59% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.19% (

-0.12)

61.81% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Umm Salal 43.32%

Al Ahli 32.12%

Draw 24.55%

Umm Salal	Draw	Al Ahli
2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.67% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.59% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 43.32%	1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.55%	1-2 @ 7.6% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.17% Total : 32.12%