SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 48.96%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 25.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Fakel win was 0-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Fakel |
48.96% ( 1.5) | 25.44% ( -0.45) | 25.59% ( -1.06) |
| Both teams to score 51.05% ( 0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48% ( 1.03) | 51.99% ( -1.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.26% ( 0.88) | 73.73% ( -0.88) |
| Akhmat Grozny Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.75% ( 1.09) | 21.25% ( -1.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.83% ( 1.66) | 54.16% ( -1.66) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.83% ( -0.32) | 35.16% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.08% ( -0.34) | 71.91% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Fakel |
| 1-0 @ 11.57% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.43% Total : 48.96% | 1-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 7.47% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.43% | 0-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.4) 1-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.05% Total : 25.59% |
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