SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fakel win with a probability of 44%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fakel win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.62%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fakel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
44% ( -0.05) | 27.89% ( -0.05) | 28.12% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 45.9% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.43% ( 0.21) | 59.57% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.09% ( 0.16) | 79.91% ( -0.16) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.07% ( 0.07) | 26.93% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.74% ( 0.1) | 62.26% ( -0.1) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.81% ( 0.2) | 37.19% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.02% ( 0.19) | 73.98% ( -0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Nizhny Novgorod |
| 1-0 @ 13.14% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 8.62% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.77% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.73% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.24% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.91% Total : 44% | 1-1 @ 12.99% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.01% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.66% Total : 27.88% | 0-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.12% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.76% Total : 28.12% |
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