Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Rostov win was 1-0 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
