SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Dynamo Moscow | 10 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Sochi | 9 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Akhmat Grozny | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Khimki | 9 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Fakel | 9 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Ural Yekaterinburg | 10 | -14 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 66.9%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 14.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.66%), while for a Fakel win it was 1-2 (4.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | Fakel |
66.9% ( -0.75) | 18.63% ( 0.24) | 14.48% ( 0.51) |
| Both teams to score 54.97% ( 0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.24% ( 0) | 37.75% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40% ( 0) | 60% ( -0.01) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.57% ( -0.19) | 10.43% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.99% ( -0.42) | 34.01% ( 0.42) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.37% ( 0.7) | 38.63% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.63% ( 0.66) | 75.37% ( -0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | Fakel |
| 2-0 @ 10.29% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 9.11% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 7.76% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.04)Other @ 4.67% Total : 66.89% | 1-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.03% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.63% | 1-2 @ 4.12% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.92% Total : 14.48% |
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