Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 49.74%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.62%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
