While Genoa's recent record in this fixture is woeful, they have had more time to rest and train, while Fiorentina are between two legs of an important European tie. As the Grifone are durable away from home and their hosts lack reliable firepower, a low-scoring stalemate is surely on the cards.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 56.43%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 19.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.81%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
1.19) 
-0.07) 
