Six of the last seven goals scored in games between Roma and Napoli have arrived after the 75th minute, so history suggests a late winner could be on the cards. The hosts' home record is underwhelming, so the Giallorossi may deepen their misery with a rare win in Naples.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 49.01%. A win for Roma had a probability of 26.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
0.96) 
-0.33) 
