With goals likely to be thin on the ground in Salerno, a single strike could decide the points' destiny on Saturday evening: both teams are fairly lightweight up front. Compared to Paulo Sousa's early impact at the Arechi, Bologna are further along in their development under Thiago Motta so can get back on the winning trail at their hosts' expense.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 41.29%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 31.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (9.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
-0.99) 
1.05) 
