Though Samp will surely get off the mark in terms of goals at the fourth time of asking, their ebbing confidence suggests this is a bad time to welcome in-form Lazio to Marassi. They will defend deep, but may have no answer to the visitors' increasingly fluent 'Sarri-ball'.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.59%) and 0-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 1-0 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.28) 
0.42) 
