Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 48.63%. A win for Lecco had a probability of 26.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.47%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest Lecco win was 1-0 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
-0.64) 
0.07) 
