Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 46.05%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
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