Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampdoria win with a probability of 42.81%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampdoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 0-1 (10.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sampdoria would win this match.
0.33) 
-0.34) 
