Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 41.89%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Luzern would win this match.
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