SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 60.55%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 20.11% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.4%) and 3-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (5.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Gallen | Draw | Lugano |
60.55% ( 0.45) | 19.34% ( -0.17) | 20.11% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 64.9% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.44% ( 0.44) | 30.56% ( -0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.14% ( 0.52) | 51.86% ( -0.52) |
| St Gallen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.06% ( 0.24) | 9.94% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.12% ( 0.55) | 32.88% ( -0.55) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.06% ( 0.02) | 27.94% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.43% ( 0.02) | 63.57% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Gallen | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.4% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 7.26% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 6.41% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 5.7% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 4.63% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.73% Total : 60.55% | 1-1 @ 8.17% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.41% Total : 19.34% | 1-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 3.54% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.37% Total : 20.11% |
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