Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 50.56%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 23.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
0.27) 
-0.05) 
