Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 59.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Valadares Gaia had a probability of 16.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Valadares Gaia win it was 0-1 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
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