While Gil Vicente did manage a hard-fought victory over this opponent just a couple of weeks ago, that victory came on their home patch, and they now have to head to Guimaraes, where Vitoria has been very good, currently holding the league's third-best record behind Sporting and Benfica.
We are expecting a close encounter here but fancy the hosts to progress to the next round of the competition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 54.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 21.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
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