Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.3%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.74%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (11.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
