SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | River Plate | 30 | 11 | 48 |
| 6 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 5 | 48 |
| 7 | Penarol | 29 | 8 | 46 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Albion | 30 | -16 | 33 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 29 | -13 | 30 |
| 13 | Plaza Colonia | 30 | -7 | 29 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 37.64%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 34.11% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cerro Largo in this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro Largo |
34.11% ( 0.04) | 28.24% ( -0) | 37.64% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 46.96% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.77% ( 0.02) | 59.23% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.35% ( 0.01) | 79.65% ( -0.01) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.41% ( 0.03) | 32.59% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.88% ( 0.04) | 69.12% ( -0.03) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.66% ( -0.01) | 30.33% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.48% ( -0.01) | 66.52% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 11.08% 2-1 @ 7.41% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.21% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.77% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.32% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 34.11% | 1-1 @ 13.22% 0-0 @ 9.88% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.42% ( 0)Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.24% | 0-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.03% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.76% 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.31% Total : 37.64% |
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