Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 19.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.32%) and 1-2 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
Deportivo Maldonado	Draw	Penarol
19.86% ( -0.13)	26.12% ( 0.06)	54.02% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 42.75% (

-0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.46% (

-0.33)

59.54% (

0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.11% (

-0.25)

79.89% (

0.25)

Deportivo Maldonado Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.95% (

-0.33)

45.05% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.03% (

-0.27)

80.97% (

0.27)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.8% (

-0.11)

22.2% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.39% (

-0.17)

55.61% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Deportivo Maldonado 19.86%

Penarol 54.01%

Draw 26.12%

Deportivo Maldonado	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.69% Total : 19.86%	1-1 @ 12% 0-0 @ 10% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.52% Total : 26.12%	0-1 @ 15.05% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 11.32% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 5.68% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.53% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 2.14% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.74% Total : 54.01%