SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 57.64%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.12%) and 1-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%), while for a La Luz win it was 1-0 (6.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.
| Result | ||
| La Luz | Draw | Nacional |
18.71% ( 0.01) | 23.65% ( 0.25) | 57.64% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 47.67% ( -0.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.96% ( -0.95) | 52.04% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.23% ( -0.83) | 73.77% ( 0.83) |
| La Luz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.02% ( -0.55) | 41.98% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.58% ( -0.48) | 78.42% ( 0.48) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.17% ( -0.44) | 17.83% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.42% ( -0.76) | 48.58% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| La Luz | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 6.5% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 4.86% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.21% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.91% Total : 18.71% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.28)2-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.77% Total : 23.64% | 0-1 @ 12.9% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 11.12% ( 0.1)1-2 @ 9.66% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 6.4% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.55% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.39% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.46% Total : 57.63% |
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