SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 21 | 16 | 43 |
| 2 | Nacional | 20 | 25 | 41 |
| 3 | Boston River | 21 | 9 | 40 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Plaza Colonia | 20 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 21 | -11 | 18 |
| 16 | Cerrito | 20 | -23 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 70.36%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 9.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.4%) and 3-0 (9.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Cerrito win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Cerrito |
70.36% ( 0.14) | 19.84% ( -0.11) | 9.8% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 36.86% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.76% ( 0.35) | 54.23% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.36% ( 0.29) | 75.63% ( -0.29) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.67% ( 0.16) | 14.33% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.84% ( 0.3) | 42.16% ( -0.3) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 43.03% ( 0.16) | 56.97% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.97% ( 0.09) | 89.02% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Cerrito |
| 1-0 @ 15.85% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 15.4% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 9.98% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.67% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.73% Total : 70.35% | 1-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.16% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.32% Total : 19.84% | 0-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 1.4% Total : 9.8% |
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